Is Gold’s surge the start of a changing safe-haven landscape?

Gold is back in the spotlight. After notching three record highs in one week, the yellow metal is trading at $3,342, up over 3.5% in just days. It’s not just the price action grabbing attention - it’s the timing. Gold’s surge is against heightened geopolitical tensions, a hawkish Federal Reserve, and market-wide nervousness.

Meanwhile, Bitcoin, often dubbed digital gold, is moving in the opposite direction - or barely moving. So, what’s shifting beneath the surface? Are we entering a new era in the world of safe havens?

Let’s take a look.

Gold’s price surge

The latest rally in gold has come when investors are actively looking for stability. Tensions between the U.S. and China flared again after President Donald Trump launched an investigation into rare earth imports from China. These materials are vital to electronics and defense industries, and China controls the lion’s share of global supply.

This move was widely interpreted as more than a trade tiff - it was a strategic escalation. As a result, markets reacted predictably: risk-off sentiment kicked in, and gold became the go-to refuge.

Gold’s breakout wasn’t just symbolic. It came alongside a dip in the U.S. dollar and a pullback in Treasury yields, both of which historically boost gold’s appeal.

The Fed hits pause on the easing narrative

While geopolitical headlines stirred the pot, the Federal Reserve added weight to gold’s climb. During a speech this week, Chair Jerome Powell struck a firm tone, emphasising that the Fed’s top priority remains managing inflation - even if the economy starts to wobble.

The message was clear: rate cuts aren’t happening anytime soon.

That recalibration hit markets hard. Investors who had priced in aggressive easing were forced to reassess. Now, the first rate cut isn't expected until July, and even that’s tentative.

In the bond market, 10-year Treasury yields dropped to 4.281%, and real yields followed suit before an uptick to 4.315. These falling real rates are one of the strongest fundamental drivers of gold's recent strength - lower real yields make non-yielding assets like gold much more attractive by comparison, but will the yield recovery change gold’s trajectory?

The return of stagflation fears

The backdrop of economic uncertainty makes gold’s run even more interesting. Powell alluded to the risk that the Fed’s dual mandate - supporting growth while controlling inflation - might be under strain. And there’s data to back that up.

• Retail sales were strong overall, up 1.4% month-over-month in March. However, the control group, a more precise measure used for GDP calculations, only rose 0.4%, below expectations.
  
• At the same time, industrial production slipped 0.3%, reversing the gains from February and highlighting weakness in manufacturing.
  

This uneven data raises the possibility of a stagflation-like environment - sluggish growth and persistent inflation - traditionally favouring gold.

Bitcoin holds its ground but trails gold

While gold has soared, Bitcoin has had a much quieter week. Prices are hovering just above $84,000, up barely 0.25% over the past 24 hours. That’s a sharp contrast to gold’s double-digit weekly rally.

Since its all-time high above $109,000, Bitcoin has declined more than 22%, and has struggled to break above the $88,000 resistance level. Volatility remains a concern: BTC traded across a wide range this week, from $83,185 to $85,332, which doesn’t inspire the same confidence that gold currently commands.

Despite this, Bitcoin hasn’t collapsed under the pressure. It’s held up amid Fed hawkishness, rising global tariffs, and even fresh news from China. One factor adding subtle pressure to the crypto market is coming out of China. Local governments there are reportedly selling off seized Bitcoin holdings - as much as 15,000 BTC - to raise funds in the face of budget shortfalls.

This liquidation hasn’t caused a major selloff, suggesting the market may be absorbing the supply relatively easily. Still, it underscores how Bitcoin is still exposed to sudden, headline-driven risk.

Gold vs Bitcoin: Safe-haven identity crisis?

The diverging paths of gold and Bitcoin have brought back a familiar question: Which is the true safe haven? Right now, gold appears to be winning that contest. It has history on its side, benefits directly from falling yields, and is gaining traction as the economic backdrop grows more uncertain.

Bitcoin is evolving. Its price action shows stability, not panic. It’s also no longer moving in lockstep with risk assets like tech stocks - which dropped hard this week - suggesting a slow decoupling may be in progress.

Some analysts argue that Bitcoin is maturing into a longer-term store of value, but it hasn’t yet proven it can outperform during periods of global risk-off sentiment. For now, it remains more of a speculative asset than a true hedge.

What’s next for both assets?

Looking ahead, both gold and Bitcoin will remain highly sensitive to macro developments:

• Gold is technically set up to challenge the $3,400 level, especially if real yields continue falling and geopolitical stress remains elevated.
  
• Bitcoin needs to break decisively above $88,000 to regain momentum and silence short-term bearish voices.
  
• Economic data, including housing stats and jobless claims, will influence how markets perceive growth and inflation.
  
• The Fed’s tone will stay focused, with any hint of a policy shift likely to affect both assets - but especially Bitcoin, which thrives in high-liquidity environments.
  

Gold technical analysis: A shifting landscape?

Gold and Bitcoin may no longer be moving in sync, but that’s not necessarily a bad thing. It reflects the changing roles these assets play in a more complex financial landscape.

Gold is thriving in the here and now - feeding off fear, falling yields, and a cautious Fed.
Bitcoin is biding its time, building resilience, and slowly earning its place in the long-term safe-haven conversation.

This divergence may not be temporary - it could signal the start of a redefined safe haven landscape, one where traditional and digital assets coexist but don’t necessarily react to the same forces simultaneously.

At the time of writing, Gold is showing some slight retreat despite surging upward pressure. RSI towering into overbought levels as prices inch towards the Bollinger band - is an indicator of overbought levels. If a price slide materialises, psychological price floors to watch are $3,200 and $3,000. Should the uptick resume, the psychological target to watch is $3,400.

Ready to position yourself in this changing landscape? You can speculate on Gold’s and BTC  price with a Deriv MT5 or Deriv X account.