Can Nvidia’s AI chips withstand trade policy headwinds?

The global semiconductor sector surged into 2025 with renewed momentum, as Gartner reported a record $656 billion in chip revenues for 2024 - marking a 21% year-over-year jump. But even amid this broad growth, Nvidia is commanding the spotlight. 

The AI powerhouse recently revealed a $5.5 billion charge tied to new U.S. export restrictions on its high-demand H20 chips destined for China - a move that rattled tech investors but may ultimately reinforce Nvidia’s grip on AI infrastructure.

Nvidia’s challenge: Semiconductor trade policy and a $5.5 billion charge

Nvidia’s shares dropped 6% in aftermarket trading after the company disclosed it would need a license to export its H20 chips - its most popular AI chip in China. The U.S. government’s decision to impose this requirement indefinitely stems from national security concerns around Chinese access to high-performance computing for military or supercomputing applications.

The result: Nvidia anticipates a $5.5 billion hit in the current quarter related to inventory, purchase commitments, and associated reserves. This is a stark reminder of how geopolitical forces - particularly under a Trump-influenced trade narrative -are increasingly shaping the fate of even the most advanced tech firms.

Still, Nvidia isn’t slowing down. The company recently announced a $500 billion investment to build AI supercomputers entirely in the U.S. - a move that aligns with reshoring trends and reinforces its leadership in the AI acceleration race. While near-term revenue may take a hit, Nvidia’s position as the cornerstone of global AI infrastructure seems only more entrenched.

Intel’s Altera deal and Foundry focus

Meanwhile, Intel is attempting its comeback. The company recently sold a 51% stake in Altera, its programmable chip unit, to investment firm Silver Lake in a deal that values the business at $8.75 billion. The move allows Altera to become a standalone FPGA leader while Intel retains a 49% stake - freeing itself to focus more sharply on its foundry ambitions.

Altera, once a flagship acquisition, had underperformed expectations. Analysts see offloading majority control as a strategic reset, giving Intel breathing room to streamline operations and concentrate on core manufacturing services.

Trade turbulence in a Trump-led narrative

Both Nvidia and Intel are navigating a volatile trade environment shaped by a resurgent Trump-era strategy. The U.S. recently delayed tariffs on consumer electronics, including smartphones and computers, sparking a brief rally in tech stocks. Intel’s shares rose 5% following the announcement. However, tensions quickly escalated: China responded with plans to raise tariffs on U.S. imports to as much as 125%, amplifying the conflict.

Despite this volatility, AI remains a resilient force. Oppenheimer analyst Rick Schafer recently described AI as the "best and safest growth vector" in today’s macro climate. While chipmakers may enjoy short-term boosts from "tariff-induced pull-ins," long-term guidance remains cautious.

Importantly, AI-related chip demand continues to grow. Nvidia’s export setback may hurt near-term sales, but the broader global AI adoption curve is steepening - especially in edge computing, robotics, and next-gen communications.

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Semiconductor industry forecast: Resilience in the age of disruption

Looking forward, the semiconductor sector is at a crossroads. Nvidia’s temporary stumble may ultimately strengthen its position, thanks to massive U.S.-based investment and unrelenting demand for its AI chips. Intel, meanwhile, is refocusing and restructuring, showing signs of strategic clarity that could pay off in the medium term.

As earnings season kicks off - with Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC), Intel, and others reporting - the contrast between resilience and reinvention will take center stage. Nvidia leads the pack but navigates a minefield of export controls and policy risk. Intel is rebuilding its foundation, betting on foundry services and streamlined operations.

In a market where Trump’s trade tactics and global AI ambitions collide, the chip industry’s next chapter hinges on more than just innovation. Strategic flexibility, geopolitical awareness, and timing may determine who dominates the era of intelligent machines.

Technical analysis: Buying the dips?

Nvidia’s stock is hovering around the $112 mark, with signs of recovery evident on the daily chart. The RSI flatlining at the midline suggests low momentum, hinting that we might see some consolidation. Prices remaining below the moving average suggest the major trend is still downward unless there is a significant uptick below the moving average.

Should prices slide, a potential price floor is at the $104.10 level. Should we see a significant uptick, we could see resistance at $120.00, with a potential price target at $130.00.

After a significant uptick last week, Intel is seeing considerable sell pressure around the $19.83 price level. Prices below the moving average could signal that the latest down move could continue the larger trend. RSI pointing downwards adds to this narrative. Should prices continue the slump, $19.25 is the key price level to watch. Should we see a bounce, prices could be held at $21.00 and $22.40. 

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