Tariffs impact on markets 2025: Crypto and Gold outlook

As global trade policies shift, markets are bracing for impact. The latest wave of tariffs, spearheaded by the U.S., is stirring uncertainty across sectors. While some view this as a necessary step toward economic protectionism, others warn of long-term repercussions. 

Beyond immediate stock market reactions, these policies could reshape global finance-including the crypto landscape.

A market in flux: Volatility and investor sentiment

Recent policy announcements have sparked significant market swings. Initial optimism over potential tariff exemptions quickly gave way to concerns over broad-based levies. As a result, major tech stocks have faced sharp declines, with over $400 billion in market value erased in a matter of days.

Institutional investors are reacting swiftly-foreign withdrawals from U.S. equity funds have surged, marking one of the largest recorded exits. Meanwhile, retail traders continue to “buy the dip,” a classic divergence in sentiment that raises questions about who has the better read on the market.

The intersection of trade policy and crypto

Tariffs may seem unrelated to cryptocurrency at first glance, but the connection is growing. Bitcoin’s correlation with tech stocks means broader market uncertainty could spill over into digital assets. Historically, when risk-off sentiment dominates, Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies tend to experience heightened volatility.

Additionally, semiconductor tariffs present a unique challenge for the crypto mining industry according to experts. Higher costs for mining equipment could lead to reduced network participation, lower hash rates, and potential selling pressure from miners looking to cover expenses. 

While this may cause short-term turbulence, it also highlights the evolving dynamics between government policies and decentralized finance.

Emerging trends: Bitcoin as a national reserve asset?

Despite these challenges, there are signs of a shifting perspective on Bitcoin at the sovereign level. Reports suggest that Brazil is exploring the possibility of adding Bitcoin to its national reserves, a move that could set a precedent for other economies. Pedro Giocondo Guerra, speaking on behalf of Brazil’s administration, recently emphasized Bitcoin’s role as “the gold of the internet.” 

Brazilian lawmakers are considering a proposal that would allocate up to 5% of the country’s foreign reserves to Bitcoin. Given Brazil’s $2.2 trillion economy, this could be a significant step toward mainstream government adoption of digital assets.

Beyond crypto, the macroeconomic implications of ongoing tariff policies remain a key concern. Higher import costs could translate into persistent inflationary pressures, complicating central bank strategies. The Federal Reserve, which had signaled potential rate cuts in 2025, may need to reconsider its stance if inflation proves more resilient than expected.

Technical insight : Shorter-term  price outlook

At the time of writing Gold remains on a tear even after smashing the $3,100 target mark. Upward bias persists as $3,150 looks like the next likely target for bulls. The upward narrative is supported by prices remaining above the 100-day moving average. However, prices touching the upper bollinger band hints at overbought conditions. Should we see a reversal due to overbought conditions, the key support levels to watch are $3,000 and $2,980.

Bitcoin in contrast is sliding as risk-off sentiment dominates markets. Bearish pressure is evident on the daily chart with the downside narrative supported by prices remaining below the moving average. However, prices are now touching the lower bollinger band, hinting at oversold conditions. Should we see a rebound, the key levels to watch are $84,400 and $87,400. Should prices continue to plummet, a potential price floor level to watch is $81,100.

You can get involved and speculate on the price of these two incredible assets with a Deriv MT5 account or a Deriv X account.