Market recap: Week of 05—09 Feb 2024

February 10, 2024

Wiadomości rynkowe

The Wall Street Journal: US strong growth & market reaction

Employers added 353,000 jobs, exceeding expectations and signalling robust economic strength.
Bond yields surged post-report, suggesting investor confidence in a delayed Federal Reserve rate cut.
The payroll report could keep the Fed on hold for now, with the next meeting on March 19-20.
While stocks saw gains, smaller companies faced challenges amidst concerns over prolonged rate cuts.

Kitco: Survey on 2024 gold and silver

UBS predicts gold and silver to climb amid expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts.
Gold thrives as interest rates fall, offering a hedge against low bond yields.
Silver could outperform gold in a scenario of Fed easing, says UBS strategist.
Mixed opinions: Alliance Financial sees gold declining further, while Zaye Capital Markets remains cautious.

9news: Australian Central Bank rate decision 06 Feb

Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) expected to maintain cash rate, update economic outlook
December Consumer Price Index (CPI) shows 4.1% inflation
Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) warns central banks against swift interest rate cuts
RBA to hold eight meetings in 2024, skipping April, July, October
AUDUSD below 10-day and 50-day moving averages, signalling potential weakness

The Business Standard: China CPI on 08 Feb

Deflationary pressures rise: Weak domestic demand
Importance of supportive fiscal policy emphasised
Consumer behaviour affected: Delayed purchases expected
Beijing's fiscal policy boost: Increased budget deficit, encouragement for banks
Pork prices impact: Slumping prices affect CPI figures
Ample hog supply & sluggish consumption contribute

ABC News: RBA holds rates

RBA decision to keep rates on hold had been widely anticipated
An increasing number of economists now expect the RBA to start cutting rates in the second half of this year as inflation continues to moderate
RBA statement: Inflation continued to ease in the December quarter. Despite this progress, inflation remains high at 4.1%.
Returning inflation to target within a reasonable timeframe remains the RBA Board’s highest priority. This is consistent with the RBA’s mandate for price stability and full employment.

CNBC and Reuters: General Motors recall

General Motors is recalling 323,232 vehicles to address an issue with the tailgate that may open while driving, potentially causing a road hazard, the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration.
U.S. vehicle sales increased 14.1%, reported sales of roughly 2.6 million vehicles in 2023, representing the automaker’s best year since 2019.
Compared to its competitors in the US, Toyota sold 2.3 million, and Honda sold 1.3 million cars in 2023.

Reuters: Uncertainty creeps back to US Treasury

Treasury yield surge
Fed caution sparks recalibration
10-year Treasury yield up 20 basis points
Concerns over bond supply surge
Expected 2 trillion USD in new government bond issuance
Robert Tipp, PGIM Fixed Income predicts 10-year yields approaching 5%
John Madziyire, Vanguard plans to start climbing to 4.5%

Yahoo & BNN Bloomberg: Citigroup warns on Nasdaq

Citigroup Inc. strategists warn of potential wider rout
Nasdaq 100 futures bearish wagers completely erased
Goldman Sachs' Scott Rubner cautions on potential market downturn

Wall Street Journal and CFR: Deflation Tightens in China

China's consumer prices drop by 0.8% YoY in January
Prices of fruit, vegetables, and meat decline
Pork prices plummet by 17.3% YoY
Income growth slows, challenging debt servicing and spending
Corporate profits decline, hindering investment and hiring
Balance-sheet recession looms as debt burden rises
People’s Bank of China fixes central parity rate to prevent yuan depreciation

Seeking Alpha: JP Morgan says crude oil can rise another 10

Crude oil expected to surge 10 USD more by May
JP Morgan forecasts tightening market
Global economy showing signs of improvement
Crude inventories decline across regions

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Disclaimer:

The information contained in this blog is for educational purposes only and is not intended as financial or investment advice. It is considered accurate and correct at the date of publication by the sources. Changes in circumstances after the time of publication may impact the accuracy of the information.

The performance figures quoted refer to the past, and past performance is not a guarantee of future performance or a reliable guide to future performance.

We recommend you do your own research before making any trading decisions.

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