일본은행

로이터: 일본은행은 -0.1%의 초저금리를 유지했습니다. 인플레이션이 지속적으로 2% 목표에 도달할 때까지 경제를 지원하려는 그들의 약속은 광범위한 자극 프로그램을 단계적으로 철회하려는 의도를 시사합니다.

구로다 카즈오 총재는 금리 조정을 고려하기 전에 임금과 서비스 가격에 대한 데이터의 신중한 평가의 중요성을 강조했습니다.

관련 맥락에서, 일주일 전 미국 재무장관 재닛 옐런은 변동성에 대응하여 엔화 개입의 정당성을 인정했습니다. 또한, 일본의 재무부 장관 스즈키 슌이치는 통화 분야에서 다양한 옵션을 탐색할 의향을 나타냈습니다. 이는 달러가 148엔을 초과하면서 무역 의존도가 높은 일본에 부정적인 영향을 미칠 수 있는 조치에 대한 경고가 담겨 있습니다.

석유 수요

BNN 블룸버그: 10월 미국 걸프 터미널에서의 캐나다 원유 수출. 사우디아라비아와 러시아의 생산 감축이 해외에서의 수요 증가를 촉진하고 있으며, 미국 정유소의 유지보수가 진행 중인 가운데, 이 원유가 선적 가능한 상태로 더욱 많이 나올 수 있게 되었습니다.

예상되는 선적량은 다음 달에 1,100만 배럴에 달할 것으로 예상되며, 이는 기록상 두 번째로 높은 양을 기록하는 것입니다.

정부 셧다운

Reuters: The potential for a government shutdown underscores the impact of political polarisation in Washington, hampering fiscal policymaking. This comes at a time when rising interest rates are exerting pressure on the affordability of U.S. government debt, as noted by Moody's analyst William Foster in a conversation with Reuters.

Congress has encountered challenges in passing spending bills to fund federal agency programs for the upcoming fiscal year starting on Oct. 1 amid an internal feud within the Republican Party.

In another development, Deutsche Bank's analysis, dating back to the 1700s, has identified four criteria signalling an impending recession, with the U.S. economy now triggering the final warning sign.

UK growth

The Guardian: According to a study by the Chartered Institute of Personnel & Development (CIPD), average sickness absence in the past year increased to 7.8 days, up from 5.8 days in 2019, among 918 organizations representing 6.5 million employees.

The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) data reveals that among its 38 member countries, the UK stands out with a lower employment rate, higher unemployment rate, and increased economic inactivity compared to early 2020. KPMG's economic forecast for the UK anticipates a slowdown, with growth projected at just 0.4% this year, down from 4.1% in 2022 and further deceleration to 0.3% in 2024.

Gold slides

CNBC: Gold prices slid for a second straight day, driven by rising Treasury yields and a stronger dollar amid expectations of prolonged higher interest rates by the Federal Reserve.

SPDR Gold Trust, the world's largest gold-backed exchange-traded fund, reported its lowest holdings since January 2020.

China's central bank lifted temporary gold import restrictions imposed on select lenders, previously aimed at stabilizing the renminbi.

During these restrictions, the Shanghai gold price vs. London reached an all-time high of $121 per troy ounce, but it has since receded.

Australia inflation

The Guardian: Australia's inflation shows acceleration in August, primarily driven by surging fuel prices and increasing rents. The consumer price index for the month rose to an annual rate of 5.2%, up from 4.9%.

Next week, the RBA board will convene for its first rates decision under the leadership of new governor Michelle Bullock.

European economic policy

Reuters: The European Central Bank (ECB) urges governments to reconsider energy price subsidies introduced during the Ukraine conflict, citing the potential to stabilize inflation over time. Monitoring over 500 fiscal measures, the ECB notes most countries are complying with the July agreement to end subsidies. ECB forecasts GDP growth at 0.7% for 2023 and 1.0% for 2024.

UK housing

The Guardian: In a recent survey by KPMG, over 1,000 UK mortgage holders were asked about coping with higher monthly payments.

18% dipped into savings to reduce debt, 25% considering it
12% extended mortgage terms, 25% were considering
8% downsized homes, 22% contemplating a move

Linda Ellett, KPMG's UK head of consumer markets, notes the impact on household budgets and spending.

Interest rate cuts and easing policy by Bank of Japan

Bloomberg: Goldman Sachs in the U.S. adjusts rate cut expectations from April-June 2024 to October-December amidst rising long-term interest rates. Investors brace for prolonged high rates.

Meanwhile, Bank of Japan maintains current easing policy, extending the expected timeline for policy revision. Japanese PM Kishida emphasizes vigilance on exchange rate trends and possible responses to excessive fluctuations.

Speculators hold a significant short yen position, raising the potential for government intervention and yen appreciation.

Disclaimer:

The information contained in this blog is for educational purposes only and is not intended as financial or investment advice. It is considered accurate at the date of publication by the sources. 발행 이후의 상황 변화는 정보의 정확성에 영향을 미칠 수 있습니다.

과거 실적은 미래 결과를 보장하지 않습니다. Doing your own research before making any trading decisions is recommended.