Nvidia and Intel are fighting very different chip wars

Nvidia is riding momentum. Intel is laying off 20% of its workforce. This isn’t an earnings week - it’s a test of who still matters in the chip war.

As Nvidia rockets toward AI domination with soaring stock and silicon supremacy, Intel is cutting deep to survive. It’s no longer about who leads in chips. It’s about who adapts fast enough to matter in a market that punishes hesitation and rewards reinvention.

This April, two chip giants - one riding momentum, the other undergoing triage - are giving investors and traders a front-row seat to how the semiconductor war is being fought. With Q1 earnings about to drop, we’ll see who’s built for what comes next.

Nvidia: Momentum meets macro risk

Nvidia isn’t just winning - it’s winning fast. The stock surged past $104 this week, gaining 5.2% in premarket trading after a 2% rise the day before. A strong rebound, especially after falling below the psychologically critical $100 level on Monday.

The spark? 

President Trump’s announcement that the U.S. would “substantially” lower 145% tariffs on Chinese imports. While Nvidia’s chips are largely produced in Taiwan, fears of retaliatory levies have clouded the sector. The rollback relieved Nvidia and the entire AI ecosystem, which depends on stable supply chains.

Still, storm clouds remain. According to BofA Securities, the Biden-era AI Diffusion Rule will take effect on 15 May and could impact up to 10% of Nvidia’s revenue and 11% of earnings per share. Nvidia is also preparing for a $5.5 billion charge related to export license delays for its powerful H20 chips this quarter.

Yet analysts remain bullish. Barclays and Bank of America cut their price targets ($155 and $150, respectively) but still see an upside of 50% or more from current levels. Nvidia’s strategic pivot to U.S.-based production, with major builds in Arizona and Texas, is being framed as a long-term hedge against geopolitical instability - and a national branding move as the U.S. races to reclaim chip dominance.

Intel restructuring news: Cutting deep to rebuild

Intel’s story is far messier and, potentially, more meaningful.

Intel is now in deep transformation mode after falling behind in AI, lagging in advanced chip manufacturing, and ceding mindshare to Nvidia. New CEO Lip-Bu Tan oversees a massive overhaul, slashing 20% of the workforce just a year after a 15,000-job cut.

The message? This is not a routine trim. It’s a systemic reset.

Intel has also postponed construction of its Ohio fab and recently sold a majority stake in its programmable chip unit, Altera, to Silver Lake for $4.46 billion - a move aimed at strengthening the balance sheet ahead of a brutal transition phase.

Intel’s Q1 earnings, due Thursday after market close, are expected to reflect that pain: analysts forecast $0.01 EPS on $12.3 billion in revenue. However, Wall Street will focus less on numbers and more on signals of clarity and control from the new leadership.

The stock rose 3.56% to $19.51 on restructuring news. And while hedge fund activity remains split, there’s interest:

• Morgan Stanley added 59M shares in Q4 (+128%)
  
• Jane Street added 27M (+447%)
  
• Meanwhile, Capital Research and Bank of America dumped tens of millions in stock
  

On Capitol Hill, Intel has quietly become a bipartisan favorite. Congressional trading disclosures show that 14 of 16 recent trades were purchases, with representatives like Robert Bresnahan and Marjorie Taylor Greene consistently buying over the past six months.

A chip season that could reshape the sector

What makes this earnings season different is the context. It’s not just about beating estimates - it’s about navigating:

• Tariff turbulence
  
• AI monetisation uncertainty
  
• Supply chain realignment
  
• New Chinese competitors (Huawei’s 910C AI chip, for example, now rivals Nvidia’s H100 in capability)
  

Other players like AMD, Qualcomm, and Huawei are in the mix, but Nvidia and Intel are telling the clearest story this quarter. 

Nvidia is betting on scale, speed, and relentless innovation. Intel is betting on humility, hard pivots, and time. 

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Looking ahead: Semiconductor stock forecast

Will Nvidia’s pace eventually outstrip demand and trigger oversupply? Will Intel’s streamlining restore its innovative edge? Those questions won’t be fully answered this quarter - but the seeds of the next five years are being planted.

This isn’t just about quarters’ results.

It’s about who shapes the AI era and who scrambles to stay in it.

At the time of writing, Nvidia trades around the $102.57 mark, with beamish pressure apparent on the daily chart. A recent “death cross” where the 200 SMA crossed above the 50 SMA adds to the bearish narrative. However, the rising RSI around the midline hints at upward pressure building. Should we see a slide, prices could be held at the $96.40 and $92.45 support levels. Should we see a bounce, prices could encounter a resistance wall at the $114.70 price level. 

On the other hand, Intel stock is trading at around $20.56, with bearish pressure evident as prices remain below the moving average. However, the rising RSI around the midline hints at upward pressure building. Should we see a slide, prices could be held at the $19.00 and $18.00 support levels. If prices bounce, they could encounter resistance hurdles at the $21.60  $24.00 price levels. 

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