Global financial markets brace for an impactful week
Australia's retail sales dip (28 Nov):
- Unexpected turn: Retail sales in Australia fell by 0.2% in October, surprising analysts who expected a 0.1% rise.
- Forex impact: The AUD/USD remains robust, trading near 0.6625, buoyed partly by a weaker US dollar.
Asian currency surge amid Fed rate hike pause speculation (29 Nov):
- Dollar weakness: Most Asian currencies advanced as the dollar hit a three-month low, driven by expectations that the Federal Reserve might pause interest rate hikes.
- Yen's climb: The Japanese yen rose 0.3%, with traders banking on the Bank of Japan shifting from its dovish stance by 2024. This is backed by recent sticky inflation data.
- Key data ahead: Industrial production and retail sales data from Japan are keenly awaited later in the week.
- Other regional gainers: The South Korean won, and the Australian dollar saw gains, with the latter rising 0.2%, influenced by stronger commodity prices and the retail sales data.
RBNZ meeting expected to hold rates (01:00 GMT, 29 Nov):
- Consensus view: Analysts anticipate the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to maintain the interest rate at 5.50%.
- NZD/USD reaction: The pair shows resilience, supported by a weaker US dollar.
Eurozone inflation outlook (10:00 GMT, 30 Nov):
- ECB's observation: ECB President Christine Lagarde notes easing inflation but with persistent wage growth.
- Eurostat data: Suggests potential moderation in wage and inflation growth, impacting ECB's rate decisions.
US PCE Index: A Key Inflation Measure (13:39 GMT, 30 Nov):
- September's rise: A 0.3% increase was observed.
- Projection: A drop to 3.5% is anticipated, signalling a cooling in inflation.
OPEC+ meeting on production cuts (30 Nov):
Supply cut speculations: Amid quota disagreements, deeper cuts are anticipated to stabilise oil prices.
US ISM manufacturing PMI indicators (15:00 GMT, 1 Dec):
Forecast: A slight rise to 47.6 points is expected, indicative of a gradual economic slowdown.
RBA governor's caution on rate hikes:
Inflation tracking: Michele Bullock, Governor of the Reserve Bank of Australia, highlighted the need for caution in further interest rate hikes, noting that Australian inflation follows global trends.
This week's global financial landscape is shaped by significant events, from central bank decisions to crucial economic data. These developments will influence market dynamics across currencies, interest rates, inflation, and oil prices. Stay tuned for a dynamic and influential week in financial markets.
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This information is considered accurate and correct at the date of publication. Changes in circumstances after the time of publication may impact the accuracy of the information.