Have precious metals entered a new safe-haven cycle?

Have precious metals entered a new safe-haven cycle? The evidence increasingly points in that direction, according to analysts. Gold has surged past $4,900 per ounce for the first time, silver has pushed to record highs above $96, and platinum prices have doubled in just seven months. Moves of this scale rarely occur in isolation or purely on speculation.

What sets this moment apart is the synchronisation. A softer US dollar, rising geopolitical risk, expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts and steady central bank buying are all pulling in the same direction. When gold, silver and platinum respond together to macro stress, it often signals a behavioural shift rather than a short-lived rally - raising questions about whether precious metals are reclaiming their role as core defensive assets.

What’s driving precious metals?

Gold’s latest surge reflects a familiar but intensifying macro backdrop. The US dollar index has slipped around 0.4%, improving affordability for non-dollar buyers, while markets are pricing in two Federal Reserve rate cuts in the second half of the year. Lower yields reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets, making gold more attractive just as confidence in monetary stability begins to wobble.

Geopolitics has added another layer of urgency. Tensions involving Iran and Venezuela, alongside renewed uncertainty around Greenland and NATO security commitments, have curbed risk appetite. 

Although President Trump’s comments on delaying some European tariffs briefly calmed markets, the lack of clarity around long-term trade and security arrangements continues to underpin defensive positioning. As Peter Grant of Zaner Metals observed, gold demand remains closely tied to a broader macro de-dollarisation trend rather than a single headline shock.

Why it matters

This rally carries weight because it is not driven solely by retail speculation. Central banks have remained consistent buyers of gold, reinforcing its status as a strategic reserve asset during periods of fiscal strain and political uncertainty. That steady accumulation has provided a long-term price floor, even amid short-term volatility.

Silver’s behaviour adds another dimension. While it lacks gold’s reserve status, it straddles both monetary and industrial demand. Nikos Tzabouras of Tradu notes that silver still benefits from safe-haven flows during periods of dollar weakness, even as its industrial role amplifies price swings. When both metals attract capital simultaneously, it suggests investors are hedging not just market risk, but systemic uncertainty.

Impact on precious metals markets

Beneath the headline prices, physical market dynamics are tightening. Stefan Gleason, CEO of Money Metals Exchange, describes current silver trading as unusually intense, with new investors entering the market while long-term holders take partial profits. Demand over the past three to four weeks has exceeded levels seen during the COVID-19 panic, despite silver prices having doubled over the past year.

The pressure is less about raw material scarcity and more about processing capacity. In the United States, large silver bars remain available, but limited refining and minting capacity has created backlogs, rising premiums and delayed deliveries. Outside the US, the squeeze is more pronounced. London and Asian markets face tighter supplies, worsened by ETF inflows that have withdrawn physical silver from circulation. As a result, Asian silver prices now trade up to $3 above New York levels, a gap that may persist due to transport costs and logistical delays.

Copper’s role: a parallel signal, not a safe haven

While copper is not a traditional safe-haven asset, nor a precious metal, its recent behaviour reinforces the broader commodities narrative. Demand for copper has been accelerating as electrification, renewable energy investment and the rapid expansion of AI-driven data centres gather pace. AI infrastructure alone is expected to consume around 500,000 tonnes of copper annually by 2030, adding to already strong demand from property, transport and power networks, particularly in China and India.

At the same time, supply growth has struggled to keep up. Mining disruptions in Chile and Indonesia, declining ore grades and long project lead times - often stretching close to two decades from discovery to production - have constrained output. 

Policy uncertainty has added further volatility. US tariffs on semi-finished copper products, and the possibility of duties on refined copper from 2027 pending a Commerce Department review in mid-2026, have distorted trade flows and pushed US inventories to their highest levels in more than 20 years. While copper’s 2026 outlook is more mixed, with forecasts clustered between $10,000 and $12,500 per tonne, its structural tightness underlines the same theme evident in precious metals: supply is struggling to respond quickly to long-term demand shifts.

Expert outlook

From a technical perspective, gold’s momentum remains intact, though the pace of gains raises the risk of short-term pullbacks. Grant argues that any near-term setbacks are likely to be viewed as buying opportunities, with $5,000 per ounce now firmly within sight and further upside implied by longer-term projections. The key question is not whether volatility will appear, but whether demand absorbs it.

Platinum’s outlook may be even more sensitive. UBS now expects platinum to trade around $2,500 per ounce in the coming months, citing strong investment demand and tight physical conditions. With annual platinum consumption a fraction of gold’s, even modest shifts in investor preference can trigger sharp price moves. Elevated lease rates in London point to ongoing physical tightness, though UBS warns that the metal’s small market size could keep volatility elevated.

Key takeaway

Precious metals appear to be moving beyond a simple price rally and into a broader safe-haven phase. Gold’s push towards $5,000, silver’s physical market stress and platinum’s supply tightness all point to a reassessment of defensive assets. While volatility is likely, the underlying macro forces remain aligned. The next signals to watch will be Federal Reserve guidance, ETF flows and physical premiums across key global markets.

Silver technical outlook

Silver remains near recent highs following a sharp, sustained advance, with the price continuing to trade close to the upper Bollinger Band. The bands remain widely expanded, indicating elevated volatility and persistent directional pressure rather than consolidation. Momentum indicators reflect stretched conditions: the RSI is hovering above 70, signalling sustained overbought momentum rather than mean reversion. 

Trend strength remains present, with ADX elevated and directional indicators showing continued dominance of the prevailing move. From a structural perspective, silver is holding well above prior breakout zones around $72, $57, and $46.93, highlighting the magnitude and persistence of the recent rally. Overall, price behaviour reflects an extended trend phase characterised by strong momentum and heightened volatility.