2025 market outlook: What’s next for Gold & Bitcoin as risk appetite rises?

Gold extended its losing streak for a third straight day as shifting market sentiment fueled a move away from safe-haven assets. Despite a 13% gain this year, the yellow metal is under pressure as investors pile into riskier assets, driven by optimism surrounding Trump's tariff strategy and a resilient U.S. economy.

Trump's tariffs: A more targeted approach

Markets initially feared a broad, economy-wide tariff war, but the latest news suggests a more strategic plan. The White House is narrowing its focus to the "Dirty 15"-countries with the largest trade deficits with the U.S., including China, the EU, and Mexico. This has eased inflation fears and boosted risk appetite, weighing on gold prices while sending Wall Street into a frenzy. On Monday alone, U.S. stocks added a staggering $1.35 trillion in value.

The fed’s hawkish stance weighs on metals

Adding to gold’s woes, Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic surprised markets with his latest remarks, predicting just one rate cut this year. He doesn’t expect inflation to return to the Fed’s 2% target until 2027, signaling that high rates may persist longer than expected. Markets, however, are still pricing in about 62.5 basis points of easing this year, setting the stage for potential volatility in precious metals.

Rising Treasury yields are another headwind for gold. The 10-year yield surged to 4.33%, with real yields climbing toward 2%, making non-yielding assets like gold less attractive. 

Bitcoin surges past $86K, but volatility looms

While gold struggles, Bitcoin is flexing its muscles, surging past $86,000 with a 4.25% gain last week. Institutional demand continues to pour in, with U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recording $744.3 million in inflows last week alone.

BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes predicts Bitcoin could reach $110,000 before pulling back to $76,500. His bullish case hinges on the Fed’s dovish long-term stance and Trump’s tariff flexibility. However, an unexpected development threatens to disrupt the rally-Mt. Gox just moved 11,501 BTC, worth over $1 billion, to various wallets.

Large Bitcoin transfers from Mt. Gox have historically preceded market volatility, as holders who have waited nearly a decade to reclaim their funds may look to cash out. This has traders on edge, watching whether the next 72 hours will confirm Hayes’ bullish forecast or bring a sharp reversal.

According to analysts, gold’s path hinges on Fed policy and risk sentiment. Persistent high rates could pressure prices, while easing could spark a rebound. Bitcoin’s trajectory, on the other hand, could depend on institutional demand and macro trends. 

Technical outlook: Pullback-buy or protracted dump?

Gold remains vulnerable to further downside if risk appetite continues to grow, with key levels at $3,000 being closely watched. Meanwhile, Bitcoin faces a crucial test: Will it continue its rally toward $110K, or will the Mt. Gox overhang trigger a correction?

Gold has shown upside pressure for the past few weeks before its latest slide. Despite the slide, prices remain above the moving average, a hint that the bigger trend is still upward. Key levels to watch on the upside are $3,034 and $3,057. The support level to watch is $3,000.

Bitcoin has shown some consolidation for the past few weeks. Though some upward pressure is evident, prices remain below the moving average-hinting that the bigger trend is still downward. The key levels to watch on the downside are $84,000 and $81,000. On the upside, key levels to watch are $88,800 and $90,000. 

You can get involved and speculate on the price of these two incredible assets with a Deriv MT5 account or a Deriv X account.