Weekly market report – 16 May 2022

Forex

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On Friday, 13 May 2022, the US dollar index fell for the first time in 7 trading days. A recovery in equity prices weakened the greenback, which had a negative effect across the board. 

The EUR/USD fell to $1.035 (the weakest it's been in 5 years), on Thursday, 12 May 2022, amid worries of a recession and the interest rate differential between the monetary policies of the US Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank. The Euro came under severe pressure on Thursday, 12 May 2022, after several bearish geopolitical developments surrounding relations and trade with Russia regarding energy had taken place. 

The chart above replicates this drop on Thursday, 12 May 2022. 我們可以看到價格跌破了支撐位，並轉而成為新的阻力位。 該貨幣對彈起來，但僅僅看到平穩的趨勢結束了這一周。

However, the EUR/USD pair rebounded from its lowest intraday level since 2017 and climbed back above $1.04 late on Friday, 13 May 2022. This bounce-back was due to an improvement in risk sentiment and a correction of the US dollar. 

GBP/USD ended the week at approximately $1.2160, falling further by 0.3% on Friday, 13 May 2022, and taking its weekly losses to around 1.4%. In the past 4 weeks, the pair has seen losses totalling approximately 7.0%. In particular, the pound ended the day at its lowest since November 2020, when the UK was in a coronavirus lockdown.

上週，GBP/USD 面臨著強勢避險資產美元的重壓，同時也受到來自英國和歐洲的負面因素的綜合影響。 Data showed that inflation has slowed, and underlying price pressures remain elevated, weighing on traders' sentiment. 

The USD/JPY is gradually moving higher and is expected to reclaim the mark of ¥130.00 as traders brace themselves for a hawkish tone from Federal Reserve's chair Jerome Powell on the coming Tuesday, 17 May 2022. 美聯儲主席鮑威爾的講話將對美聯儲在六月利率決議中的貨幣政策立場提供一些啟示。

Meanwhile, the Japanese Yen is facing pressure after the Bank of Japan's (BoJ) Governor, Harihuko Kuroda, promised a conservative monetary policy in the future. This statement was published on Friday, 13 May 2022, highlighting that the economy has not yet achieved its pre-pandemic growth levels, and inflation is still not at par with the targeted levels.

下週的經濟日曆相當輕鬆，美國零售銷售和歐盟通脹數據可能會成為焦點。

透過最新的市場新聞提升交易策略，並在 Deriv X Financial 帳戶交易差價合約。

Cryptocurrencies

Last week, the global market capitalisation of cryptocurrencies stumbled below $1.2 trillion, falling by about 65% from its peak of $3.2 trillion at the end of 2021. The global crypto market capitalisation saw a decline of nearly 27% in the market volume on Thursday alone. 

全球最受歡迎的加密貨幣在一天內下跌了超過10%。 On Thursday, 12 May 2022, the price of Bitcoin dropped to around $26,000, its lowest level since December 2020. It steadied at about $30,000 on Friday, 13 May 2022, but that was still less than half of Bitcoin's price last November – $69,000. 然而，比特幣波動性的每週淨變化是兩年以來的最高。

近期穩定幣的下滑使加密市場變得脆弱。 根據彭博報導，算法穩定幣 Terra/USD 及其姐妹代幣 Luna 的崩潰使加密產業的總市值損失超過 $270 億。

穩定幣一直被視為加密貨幣中安全的避風港，因為眾多穩定幣的價值與政府支援的貨幣（如美元）或貴金屬（如黃金）掛鉤。 

但本週，Terra 遇到了意想不到的情況。 Terra的問題始於從支援這一穩定幣的平台Anchor的撤資。 Since Friday, 13 May 2022, Anchor's total deposits have fallen from $14 billion to $2.2 billion. Along with concerns about cryptocurrencies as a whole, and the drop in Bitcoin's price, Terra started to lose its peg to the US dollar. 

After beginning the week on Monday at $66, the coin Luna was trading at approximately $0.0002 on Friday, 13 May 2022. 

此外，Polkadot 的市值下降超過3%，交易量下降超過26%。 Solana 的市值下降超過2%，交易量下降25.5%；而 Avalanche 的市值下降超過3%，交易量下降近32%。

透過在 Deriv Trader上使用期權和倍數在金融市場上加強交易策略，從而最大限度地發揮市場機會。

Commodities

儘管從週五跌破 $1,800 的低點後回升，但由於美元指數在美聯儲提高利率預期時延續了6周的上漲，金價本週仍然下跌超過2%。 據傑羅姆鮑威爾（Jerome Powell）稱，聯邦公開市場佣金預計 6 月和 7 月再加 2 次 50 基點加息，這表明如果數據「轉錯方向」，他們將做更多。 As a result, the US Dollar Index hit a nearly two-decade high of around $105.

從技術角度來看，金價持續下跌並試圖跌破 $1,800，大大延長了熊市趨勢。 On Friday, 13 May 2022, gold traded sideways near its two-month low of $1,810. 儘管在美國的交易中金價短暫跌破 $1,800，但它設法收復了一些日常損失，並在本週結束時約為 $1,812.15。 This recovery came after the University of Michigan's monthly publication revealed that consumer confidence in the United States fell in early May. 

根據本周的每小時圖表，如果金價繼續下跌，支撐位將接近 $1,807.07。 此外，由於回升，它成功保持在 $1,810.65 和 $1,810.90 的 SMA 5 和 SMA 10 之上。

交易者們也擔心，各大央行為控制通脹而採取更激進措施可能危害全球經濟增長，甚至導致衰退。 此外，中國宏觀數據驚人地糟糕，加劇了恐慌，加上地緣政治緊張的重新出現，影響了風險情緒，迫使交易者尋求傳統避險資產的庇護。 這一轉變可能為避險金屬提供一定支援。 此外，黃金作為通脹對沖的吸引力可能有助於在至少暫時內為 XAU/USD 限制進一步損失。

另一方面，本週油市波動劇烈，在美國和全球經濟放緩的擔憂中跌破 $100，可能會減少對原油的需求。 然而，油價最近似乎已回升大部分損失，因為美國精煉燃料庫存大幅下跌，加上俄烏之間的持續緊張，將市場的焦點重新轉向供應。

本週，市場參與者將會關注幾位 FOMC 官員的發言，看看是否有可能提高75個基點的利率，這些官員包括美聯儲主席 Jerome Powell。 This economic event, in turn, will have a significant impact on the near-term USD price dynamics and provide a new directional boost to gold. 

此外，歐盟外長將在布魯塞爾會議，討論下一輪對俄羅斯的制裁，外交官們提出在匈牙利的反對聲音中推遲對其石油進口的提議禁令。 根據政府官員的說法，如果歐盟未能達成協調行動，德國打算在年底前停止進口俄羅斯原油。

美國指數

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由於交易者越來越懷疑美聯儲可以透過足夠提高利率來防止衰退，美國指數的一周有混亂。

隨著美聯儲政策的變化，預計消費者物價指數 (CPI) 將顯示通脹放緩，讓交易者感到寬慰。 CPI rose by 8.3% in April compared to 8.5% in March, while core prices (excluding food and energy) rose by 6.2% versus 6.5%. The 0.6% monthly gain in the core index was of particular interest, with it being the largest gain in 3 months. 此外，租金和航空票價分別上漲了 0.6% 和 18.6%，因為旅遊需求強勁反彈。

Also, the US government bond prices recovered modestly on Friday, 13 May 2022, with the 10-year US Treasury bond yield falling to around 2.93%. The 10-year yield had risen to 3.13% in the previous week after breaking through the 3% barrier for the first time since November 2018. It may be that the inverse correlation between stocks and treasuries is returning as stocks fell significantly this week, explaining the fall in yields as a whole and the increase in the Treasury prices. 

Currently, the main drivers of the market are the Fed's accelerated pace of monetary tightening, persistently high inflation data, concerns about slowing growth, and disruptions caused by China's strict COVID-19 lockdowns.

Now that you’re up-to-date on how the financial markets performed last week, you can improve your strategy and trade CFDs on Deriv MT5 Financial and Financial STP accounts.