Mambo yanayoathiri viwango vya forex

Kama moja ya masoko makubwa na yanayopatikana kwa urahisi zaidi ya kifedha, soko la forex lina fursa nyingi za biashara kwa wafanyabiashara ulimwenguni kote. Biashara ya forex ni ubadilishanaji wa sarafu moja kwa nyingine, na thamani ya sarafu hizo mbili hupimwa dhidi ya kila moja. Hii inaitwa kiwango cha ubadilishaji. 

‍

Kawaida kuna aina mbili za viwango vya ubadilishaji - viwango vilivyowekwa na viwango vinavyotembea. If a currency has a fixed rate, its value is pegged to the value of another currency and maintained until the local government adjusts the official exchange rate. 

‍

However, if a currency has a floating rate, its value is determined by forces in the forex market through supply and demand. 

‍

Lakini ni nguvu gani zinazohusiana na viwango vya ubadilishaji vinavyotembea? And what factors should a trader consider when predicting how a currency value will move? 

‍

In this blog post, we go through important factors that affect the mid- and long-term trends of foreign exchange rates and the value of currencies. 

‍

Viwango vya riba

‍

A high interest rate leads to higher currency values, as it will attract foreign investment and increase the demand for the local currency. 

‍

Kiwango cha riba ni kiasi ambacho kinatozwa kwa mkopaji kama gharama ya kutumia mtaji au mali anayokopa, na ni asilimia ya jumla ya kiasi kilichokopwa. Hii inawakilisha kiwango cha faida kwa mwekezaji, ambayo ni faida au hasara za uwekezaji.

‍

Wakati viwango vya riba vinavyotolewa na nchi ni vya juu, wawekezaji wa kigeni watakuwa tayari zaidi kuwekeza katika nchi hiyo kwani wataweza kupata kiwango kikubwa cha faida - au faida kubwa - kutokana na uwekezaji wao kwa muda. Wakati mtaji wa kigeni unapoingizwa katika nchi ya ndani kama uwekezaji, sarafu ya kigeni inabidi ibadilishwe kuwa sarafu ya ndani. Hii huongeza demand ya sarafu ya ndani na kuongeza thamani yake.

‍

Interest rates are determined by central banks, so it’s good to keep an eye on important announcements made by them. 

‍

Mfumuko wa bei

‍

Mfumuko wa bei hutokea wakati kuongezeka kwa gharama za bidhaa na huduma kunasababisha kuporomoka kwa uwezo wa kununua wa sarafu. The measurement of a currency’s purchasing power is a strong indicator of its value, and can be observed through a country’s level of inflation. 

‍

Mfumuko wa bei hutokea wakati bidhaa na huduma zinakuwa ghali zaidi. Hii inaweza kutokea ama kwa sababu ya kuongezeka kwa gharama za uzalishaji kutokana na malighafi au huduma ghali zaidi, au kwa sababu ya kuongezeka kwa demand. This in turn pushes up the prices of goods and services as either they become more expensive to produce or production fails to meet increasing demand. 

‍

Iwapo mfumuko wa bei ni mkubwa, itamgharimu mtumiaji pesa nyingi zaidi kununua bidhaa na huduma ikilinganishwa na hapo awali, kumaanisha sarafu ina uwezo mdogo wa kununua. The measurement of a currency’s purchasing power is a strong indicator of its value. 

‍

Ikiwa mfumuko wa bei ni mdogo, sarafu itashika nguvu kwa sababu uwezo wake wa kununua ni wa juu - kitengo kimoja cha sarafu kinaweza kununua zaidi. Hii hupelekea kuongezeka kwa demand kwa sarafu hiyo, ambayo kwa upande wake huinua thamani yake.

‍

Biashara ya Kimataifa

‍

Thamani ya sarafu inaweza pia kuathiriwa na usawa wa biashara kati ya nchi - usawa wa biashara unamaanisha tofauti kati ya uagizaji na usafirishaji wa nchi. Countries with higher exports will usually experience an increase in their currency’s value. 

‍

Hebu tuseme demand ya bidhaa za Uingereza inaongezeka. Nchi zinazotaka kuagiza bidhaa za Uingereza zitahitaji kubadilisha sarafu yao kuwa pauni ya Uingereza ili kununua bidhaa za Uingereza. This will then increase the demand for pound sterling as countries are buying more products with the currency, which will then boost its value. 

‍

Biashara ya kimataifa pia inategemea kiwango cha mfumuko wa bei wa nchi.

‍

Kwa mfano, ikiwa Marekani ina kiwango kikubwa cha mfumuko wa bei, kununua bidhaa na huduma zinazozalishwa Marekani kunakuwa ghali zaidi kwani uwezo wa kununua wa dola la Marekani umeporomoka. There will be less demand for the US dollar, thus leading to a decreasing value and exchange rate. 

‍

Utulivu wa Kifedha na Kisiasa

‍

Biashara ya kimataifa inahusiana kwa karibu na afya ya kiuchumi ya nchi. Economic health can be measured by a number of factors, including GDP, inflation, as well as a country’s current account and balance of payments — the difference between how much a country spends and how much it earns. 

‍

Ikiwa nchi inatumia zaidi kuagiza biashara ya kigeni ikilinganishwa na kile inashinda, usawa wao uko kwenye nakisi. They would need more foreign capital to buy foreign products, resulting in a lower demand for local currency and a decrease in the local currency’s value. 

‍

Kiwango cha ubadilishaji wa sarafu na thamani inayokisiwa pia vinaathiriwa sana na utulivu wa kisiasa wa nchi. Solid financial and economic policies determined by a stable government will greatly contribute to confidence in a currency and the economy as a whole. 

‍

Wakati watu wana imani na matumaini kuhusu upanuzi na ukuaji wa uchumi, watakuwa tayari zaidi kuwekeza katika sarafu ya ndani. Hii itaongeza demand kwa sarafu hiyo, na hivyo kuimarisha thamani yake.

‍

Ushuhuda

‍

Soko la forex na viwango vya ubadilishaji wa sarafu vinaweza pia kujibu ushawishi. Kwa mfano, ikiwa washawishi wanatarajia kuongezeka kwa thamani ya sarafu kutokana na matukio ya kisiasa au habari za kimataifa, wawekezaji wataweza kununua zaidi ya sarafu hiyo kwa matumaini ya kupata faida kwa kuuzwa wakati bei zinapoongezeka. This leads to an increase in demand, resulting in an increase in the currency’s value. 

‍

It is important to note that there are many factors that contribute to currency exchange rates and price movements, leading to potentially significant volatility in the forex market. 

‍

Hivyo, pamoja na kuzingatia mambo yaliyotajwa hapo juu katika uchambuzi wa kimsingi, tumia uchambuzi wa kiufundi kusaidia mkakati wako na mtindo wa biashara unapofanya biashara ya forex. Unaweza kujifunza biashara bila hatari na akaunti ya demo ambayo imeandikwa tayari na sarafu ya virtual, ambayo inakuruhusu kuboresha mkakati wako kabla ya kufanya biashara na fedha halisi.