Muhtasari wa soko: Wiki ya 06–10 Novemba 2023

Kupunguza mfumuko wa bei 

Bloomberg: Waziri aliyepita wa Hazina Lawrence Summers anashauri kutojiamini mapema katika mafanikio ya Benki Kuu ya Marekani katika kupunguza mfumuko wa bei.

Anabainisha kuwa matamko ya haraka na majibu ya hivi karibuni ya soko yanaonyesha kuwa vita huenda bado havijaisha.

Wakati huo huo, aliyekuwa CEO wa Barclays Bob Diamond anajitayarisha kwa changamoto zaidi katika deni la kampuni, akitarajia matatizo zaidi ya mikopo mbele.

Dhahabu na ajira

DoD and US Bureau of Labor Statistics and Reuters: Gold prices rose on Friday as the U.S. kuimarisha matarajio kwamba Benki Kuu ya Marekani haitainua viwango vya riba zaidi. jobs data, reinforcing expectations that the Federal Reserve won't raise interest rates further.

Wizara ya Ulinzi imethibitisha kuwepo kwa vikosi maalum nchini Israel. Ajira za mishahara isiyo ya kilimo ziliongezeka kwa 150,000 mwezi Oktoba, huku kukiwa na ongezeko la ajira katika huduma za afya, serikali, na msaada wa kijamii lakini kuanguka kwa uzalishaji kutokana na mgomo.

Data hiyo inaimarisha kesi ya kusitisha shughuli za Fed, ikisaidia bei za dhahabu, kulingana na Phillip Streible, mkakati mkuu wa soko katika Blue Line Futures huko Chicago.

The data strengthens the case for a Fed pause, supporting gold prices, according to Phillip Streible, chief market strategist at Blue Line Futures in Chicago.

UK inflation

Anatarajia "kuanguka kwa kasi zaidi" mwezi Oktoba, ukileta mfumuko wa bei chini ya 5% na kupunguza pengo kati ya Marekani na Eurozone.

Kupunguza viwango vya riba kunaweza kusubiri hadi katikati ya mwaka ujao kutoka kwenye kiwango cha juu cha miaka 15.

Interest rate cuts may wait until mid-next year from their 15-year high.

Investor sentiment

Wafanyabiashara wanaonyesha nafasi ya 90% ya viwango kubaki jinsi yalivyo mwezi Desemba, kulingana na CME FedWatch.

Wabashiri waliinua nafasi zao ndefu katika makataba ya dhahabu ya COMEX kwa 15,661 hadi 106,343 katika wiki iliyomalizika Oktoba 31, kulingana na data ya CFTC.

Speculators raised net long positions in COMEX gold futures by 15,661 contracts to 106,343 in the week ending Oct. 31, according to CFTC data.

Rate hikes

Hii inakuwa ongezeko la 13 tangu Mei 2022.

Gavana mpya Michele Bullock na bodi walikuwa wakiashiria mara kwa mara nia yao ya kurejesha ongezeko la viwango ikiwa mfumuko wa bei haukuendana na makadirio yao.

Kwa dhahabu, kati ya benki kubwa nne, ni Benki ya Kitaifa ya Australia pekee inayotabiri ongezeko lingine la kiwango, ikitarajia kilele cha 4.6% mwezi Februari.

Notably, among the big four banks, only the National Australia Bank is forecasting another rate increase, projecting a 4.6% peak in February.

US credit card debt

CNBC and Bloomberg: Recent data from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York reveals that Americans' credit card debt has reached a staggering $1.08 trillion.

In addition, credit card delinquency rates have increased. 

Kiwango cha wastani cha riba ya mwaka pia kimefikia kiwango cha juu cha muda wote, kikiwazidi 20%.

Gavana wa Fed Michelle Bowman anatarajia kutumia kiwango cha fedha za shirikisho kushughulikia mfumuko wa bei, lakini hisia za soko zinaonyesha kupunguzwa kwa viwango mwakani.

Fed governor Michelle Bowman aims to use the federal funds rate to address inflation, but market sentiment suggests potential rate cuts next year.

EU recession

GBNews: The former president of the European Central Bank (ECB) has expressed concern, predicting a potential recession in the European Union (EU) by year-end. Anasisitiza haja ya EU yenye umoja na nguvu zaidi, inayojumuisha sera za kigeni na uwezo wa ulinzi pamoja na sera za kiuchumi ili kuhakikisha uendelevu wa umoja huo.

Hata hivyo, utabiri wake ni mbaya zaidi kuliko makadirio ya hivi karibuni kutoka ECB au IMF. However, his prediction is more pessimistic than recent forecasts from the ECB or IMF.

Gold economics

Reuters: Gold prices retreated for a third consecutive session today, with investors closely monitoring cues from the U.S. central bank on interest rates.

Hata hivyo, kuongezeka kwa mgogoro kunaweza kusababisha kuongezeka kwa bei za dhahabu, kama anavyoonyesha Phillip Streible, mkakati mkuu wa soko kwa Blue Line Futures huko Chicago. central bank's actions. Reuters: Maafisa wa Benki Kuu ya Marekani, ikiwa ni pamoja na Mwenyekiti Jerome Powell, wameshiriki kutokuwa na uhakika kama viwango vya riba vya sasa vinatosha kupambana na mfumuko wa bei.

Powell alibaini athari ndogo ya maboresho ya ugavi katika kudhibiti ongezeko la bei.

Rais wa muda wa Fed ya St. Louis Kathleen O’Neill Paese alisisitiza hali mbaya ya kiuchumi, akisema, "Ingekuwa sio busara kudai kuwa ongezeko zaidi la viwango limeondolewa mezani."

Mfululizo wa ushindi wa soko la hisa ulifika mwisho tarehe 09 Novemba 2023.

Powell noted the limited impact of supply improvements on curbing price increases.

Interim St. Louis Fed President Kathleen O’Neill Paese emphasized the ongoing economic uncertainty, stating, "It would be unwise to suggest that further rate hikes are off the table."

Ingawa mfumuko wa bei umeshuka, bado unabaki juu sana, ukipita matarajio ya awali. 

Australian economy

Wall Street Journal: The Reserve Bank of Australia raises near-term core inflation forecasts, highlighting slower-than-expected cooling of inflation pressures.

Baki kuhabarika na muhtasari wetu wa soko wa kila wiki kutoka tarehe 6 hadi 10 Novemba, 2023.

Pata maarifa kuhusu mwelekeo na maendeleo ya hivi karibuni katika ulimwengu wa fedha.

While soft GDP growth is anticipated, a gradual strengthening is forecasted from mid-2024, reaching around 2.25% by end-2025.